Caredx Inc – CDNA

CareDx

Who We Are

CareDx, Inc., headquartered in Brisbane, California, is a molecular diagnostics company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of clinically differentiated, high-value diagnostic solutions for transplant recipients. CareDx offers products across the transplant testing continuum, including AlloMap® and AlloSure® for post-transplant surveillance and QTYPE®, TruSight® HLA, Olerup SSP® and Olerup SBT® for pre-transplant HLA testing.

2019-07-11

This trade idea came to me from investors.com Stocks on the Move on Wednesday 07/09. I liked the chart and placed the trade the following morning

The trade setup is a break out of a 5 month base and selling at the close of a 20 Day EMA. Today is Day 2 of a 7 Trading Day Time Stop

My cost basis: $39.39
-5% Stop: $37.36
+20% Gain: $47.19

IBD Rankings 07/11/19
Composite Rating: 96
EPS Rating: 76
RS Rating: 98
Group RS Rating: A
SMR Rating: D
Acc/Dis Rating: B+
ROE: 0%
Debt: 0%
Outstanding Shares: 42.1m
Float: 40.4m
EPS Due Date: 8/09/19

Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management
Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

CDNA 5 Year Monthly BigCharts 2019-07-11

CDNA 2 Year Weekly from BigCharts 2019-07-11

CDNA 3 Month Daily from BigCharts 2019-07-11

CDNA 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-07-11

2019-07-20

I closed out of this position on Tuesday 07/16, because it hit my -5% stop on Monday's close. This opened down another 5% at the opening. I had thought it might bounce and it didn't it headed lower.

I checked the news and the main product failed a test. In fact it would cause harm using as intended. There are lawsuits filed for false representations. I could not sell fast enough

I normally avoid the medical field, because of this volatility. I was unfamiliar with the company and relied on the market action to enter the trade. Expensive tuition and lesson learned

I got filled at 33.45

39.39 - 33.45 = -5.94 / 39.39 = -15%

CDNA 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-07-20

Air Lease Corp Cl A – AL

Air Lease Corporation is a leading aircraft leasing company principally engaged in purchasing commercial aircraft and leasing them to its valued airline customers worldwide.

2019-06-30

This trade idea came to me from my weekly review of: Investors.com IBD Weekly Vol 36 NO 11 Week of June 24, 2019. It was featured in the IBD50 #41 and I bought the following Monday Today is Day 5 of a 7 Trading Day Time Stop

My cost basis: $40.42
-5% Stop: $38.35
+20% Gain: $48.43

IBD Rankings 06/30/19
Composite Rating: 93
EPS Rating: 93
RS Rating: 84
Group RS Rating: B
SMR Rating: A
Acc/Dis Rating: A
ROE: 11.4%
Debt: 240%
Outstanding Shares: 111.1m
Float: 101.1m
EPS Due Date: 8/07/19

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

AL 5 Year Monthly from BigCharts 2019-06-30

AL 2 Year Weekly from BigCharts 2019-06-30

AL 3 Month Daily from BigCharts 2019-06-30

AL 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-06-30

2019-07-20

I closed out this position on Friday. I wanted to lighten up my portfolio and I feel that the momentum is slowing. I wanted to lock in a profit

I got filled at 41.13

41-13 - 40.42 = + .71 / 40.42 = +1.8 %

AL 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-07-20

Fly Leasing Ltd – FLY

Our fleet of 103 aircraft – with a value of approximately $3.2 billion – is leased under multi-year operating lease contracts to 44 airlines in 25 countries.

2019-05-19

This trade idea came to me from a friend of mine on May 3rd. I found the chart interesting, but earnings were being announced on May 9th. I felt this was a bit risky in order to buy the stock. So I looked at the options and found the 05/17 calls were fairly cheap and was willing to risk a small amount for an earnings play

I bought 2 May 17, 2019 $15 call options and I got filled at .35. I planned on holding this till earnings. Then see if I was willing to purchase the stock

The announcement came and the stock popped up and stayed above my cost basis $15.35. I held to expiration and bought at 200 shares at !5.00, but I had to take into account the cost of the option plus commissions for purchasing the stock

My cost basis: $15.44
-5% Stop: $14.67
+20% Gain: $18.53

IBD Rankings 05/19/19
Composite Rating: 96
EPS Rating: 81
RS Rating: 94
Group RS Rating: B
SMR Rating: A
Acc/Dis Rating: A
ROE: 14.6%
Debt: 427%
Outstanding Shares: 914.9m
Float: 28.4m
EPS Due Date: 8/21/19

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

FLY 5 Year Monthly from BigCharts 2019-05-17

FLY 2 Year Weekly from BigCharts 2019-05-17

FLY 3 Month Daily from BigCharts 2019-05-17

FLY 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-05-17

2019-05-23

I closed out the position today, because it had become extended. During my review yesterday I had marked it as a daily HOLD, but after sleeping on it I wanted to sell.

I wanted to lock in the profits and apparently I was in good company. The stock was down sharply in the morning

I got filled at $16.19

($15.48 - $16.19) = .71 / 15.48 = 4.59%

FLY 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-05-23

2019-06-23

This stock idea came from a review of my watch list on Tuesday 2019-06-18. I bought the next day and got got filled at 17.07. Today is Day 4 of a 7 Trading Day Time Stop

FLY 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-06-24

2019-07-20

I closed out of this position on Friday. It was not doing what I had expected. I owned it for 22 Trading Days and I wanted to be more in cash. I was filled at 17.08

17.14 - 17.08 = -.06 / 17.14 = -3.5%

FLY 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-07-20

Virtu Financial Inc Cl A – VIRT

Virtu Financial

virtu.com

2018-11-25

This trade idea came from Investor's Business Daily www.investors.com.
Vol 35. NO. 32 Week of November 12, 2018

This was featured in the Stocks on the Move section and I reviewed the article on the 15th. This was on my watch list and I bought on 19th.

I got filled at $26.53
-5% stop = $25.20
20% Target = $31.86

IBD Rankings 11/19/18
Composite Rating: 93
EPS Rating: 78
RS Rating: 92
Group RS Rating: B-
SMR Rating: A
Acc/Dis Rating: A+
ROE: 19.5%
Debt: 167%
Outstanding Shares: 107.0m

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

5 year monthly chart from bigcharts

VIRT 5 Year Monthly from Bigcharts 2018-11-19

1 year daily chart from Bigcharts

VIRT 1 Year Daily from Bigcharts 2018-11-19

3 month daily from Bighcharts.com

VIRT 3 Month Daily from Bigcharts 2018-11-19

3 month Daily from Stockcharts.com

VIRT 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-11-19

I am currently down in the position -4% and I'm watching this one close, because it is about to trip my stop. This had a large loss on very light volume and I am expecting a bounce. It may roll over and some warning signs

Stockcharts.com

Notes VIRT 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-11-19

2018-11-30

This had drifted down on light volume and then rolled over. I was stopped out and I got filled at $25.14. This is still on my watch list, but my timing was off

2018-12-27

I had kept this on a review list and this has been holding in an otherwise bad market. I noticed the price action and decided to by back into this stock

VIRT 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-12-27

I have changed my targets using more of the recent low for the stop and upside. I have a time stop of 7 trading days, because if this is not making me money by then I can move on

Cost $25.56

Stop $23.00

Target $30.00

2019-02-14

I closed out the position today, because I had seen a bad headline. This was getting close to my cost basis and I have not liked the way it has been trading. I wanted to be able to free up the cash to put to better use elsewhere

This was a frustrating trade, because I had held during earning reporting. The stock did nicely at earnings, but it hasn't responded well afterwards. I got filled at $25.76

25.76 - 25.56 = .20 /25.56 = +.07% since 12/07/18

VIRT 3 Month Daily from StockCharts 2019-02-14

Twitter Inc – TWTR

2018-10-31

This was in Investor’s Business Daily Stocks on the Move on 2018-20-25 and I bought 100 shars, because they had announced positive earnings. I had closed out VNDA and AMD and wanted to keep the cash active

I got filled at $31.65
-5% stop = $30.06
20% Target = $37.97

IBD Rankings today
Composite Rating: 98
EPS Rating: 99
RS Rating: 94
Group RS Rating: A-
SMR Rating: B
Acc/Dis Rating: B-
ROE: 6.8%
Debt: 34%
Outstanding Shares: 757.8m

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

5 year monthly chart from bigcharts

TWTR 5 Year Monthly from Bigcharts 2018-11-01

TWTR 1 Year Daily from Bigcharts 2018-11-01

TWTR 3 Month Daily from Bigcharts 2018-11-01

TWTR 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-11-01

2018-11-20

I closed out my position today, because the overall market has been negative and TWTR is carried along with this tech crash. I had been up and today all of the gains were gone and I got filled at a -3% loss $30.66

2018-11-29

I took another bite at the apple, because I had seen a large black candle. I thought this was a good time to buy – I was wrong

I bought at the open and was stopped out 1 hour later. I was looking for a bounce off of the 50 Day EMA, but it didn’t and it rolled over

Buy $32.35
Stop $30.82
Close $30.66

That was a quick loss

TWTR 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-11-30

Vanda Pharmaceuticals – VNDA

2018-10-22

This trade idea came to me during my review of Investors Business Daily, IBD Weekly, VOL 35 NO. 29 Week of October 22, 2018. This was featured in the Stock Spotlight section. I had liked the chart pattern and researched a little further

I got filled at: $21.98
-5% stop: $20.88
+20% Target: $26.38

IBD Rankings today
Composite Rating: 95
EPS Rating: 76
RS Rating: 95
Group RS Rating: A
SMR Rating: D
Acc/Dis Rating: B
ROE: 0%
Debt: 0%
Outstanding Shares: 54.2m
EPS Due Date: 11/05/18

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

VNDA 5 Year Monthly from Bigcharts 2018-10-22

VNDA 1 Year Dailly from Bigcharts 2018-10-22

VNDA 3 Month Dailly from Bigcharts 2018-10-22

VNDA 3 Month Dailly from Stockcharts 2018-10-22

2018-10-24

I closed out of this position after lunch. The day was not working and I was already down about 1.6%.

I got filled at $20.75 and I am glad I sold when I did, because the rest of the day was worse. It closed at 20.00

VNDA 3 Month Dailly from Stockcharts 2018-10-24

Vici Properties Inc – VICI

Vici Properties Inc (VICI)

2018-10-15

This trade idea came from my review of the Investor’s Business Daily – IBD Weekly, VOL 35 N.O. 28 Week of October 15, 2018. This was ranked in IBD50 as #44

This company is a REIT and was considering on investing longer term money one of those. This morning I bought within the first hour of trading. I’m increasing my stop to -8%, because I’m not as concerned about the exact entry

I got filled at: $20.87
-8% stop: $19.20
+20% Target: $25.04

IBD Rankings today
Composite Rating: 97
EPS Rating: 98
RS Rating: 75
Group RS Rating: B-
SMR Rating: A
Acc/Dis Rating: C+
ROE: 1.8%
Debt: 102%
Outstanding Shares: 370.2m
EPS Due Date: 10/28/18

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

VICI 5 Year Monthly from Bigcharts 2018-10-15

VICI 1 Year Daily from Bigcharts 2018-10-15

VICI 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-10-15

2018-10-18

This morning I bought an additional 100 shares, because I liked the way it was trading. There was a good day yesterday on strong volume – about 2.5x’s.

I got filled at: $21.60
-8% stop: $20.52
+20% Target: $25.92

This raised my cost basis, but it is going the direction I wanted it to go and I’m averaging up. Adding to a losing position can destroy an account. I admit I’m wrong and move on

My average position numbers are:
Cost: $21.34
-8% stop: $19.36
+20% Target: $25.48

The MACD is still positive and the MACDH is about to cross the zero line

Here is the 3 month chart from Stockcharts

VICI 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-10-18

2018-12-11

I closed out the position today $21.22 at a loss of -$.01, because it was not performing correctly. There was an article a couple of days ago about this being a possible short candidate for hedge funds.

Here is the current 3 Month Chart from Stockcharts.com

VICI 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-12-11

Sonic Corp – SONC

Sonic Corp (SONC)

2018-0912

This was in Investor’s Business Daily Stocks on the Move yesterday and I placed a limit order today at yesterday’s close. I have giving myself a time stop of 7 days. If this does not turn positive then I will sell. This is Day 1 and it wasn’t good, but I am still within the stop. Looking at the charts there should be support at 35, but that is below my 5%. We shall see…

I got filled at: $38.38
-5% stop: $36.41
+20% Target: $46.06

IBD Rankings today
Composite Rating: 81
EPS Rating: 83
RS Rating: 92
Group RS Rating: A1
SMR Rating: N/A
Acc/Dis Rating: B
ROE: 33.2.2%
Debt: 66%
Outstanding Shares: 57.4m
EPS Due Date: 11/02/18

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

SONC 5 Year Monthly from Bigcharts 2018-09-12

SONC 1 Year Daily from Bigcharts 2018-09-12

SONC 3 Months Daily from Bigcharts 2018-09-12

SONC 3 Months Daily from Stockcharts 2018-09-12

2018-09-25

I sold today, because Sonic was bought out and the upside beyond today is limited. I was down about -6.5%. This is beyond my normal -5% stop, but I wanted to give this one a wider stop.

The way this has been trading I moved it to -8% which is the classic CANSLIM stop loss.

See How to Trade Stocks by William O’Neil. My copy has creases, folds, underlines, asterisks, and mud. This is a must read.

I had liked the way this was trading and I bought it. I was loosing money and this was more luck, but I’ll take it.

Current 3 Month Chart from Stockcharts.com

SONC 3 Months Daily from Stockcharts 2018-09-25

Kemet Corp – KEM

2018-08-31

I had been watching this seriously when it was ranked #14 on Investors.com publication ofIBD Weekly IBD 50 Vol 35 N.O. 18 Week of August 6, 2018. This has been featured before, but I work with a small account and was fully positioned at that time . Risk Management rules restrained me at that time

I had sold one position and had cash available to roll into another one. I checked on this one last night and saw that it had sold off…

Then I looked at it’s volume. It was about 1/3 of what it normally trades at. That is a huge signal for reading the tape or Accumulation/Distribution

I got filled at: $25.50
-5% stop: $24.22
+20% Target: $30.60

IBD Rankings today
Composite Rating: 98
EPS Rating: 99
RS Rating: 93
Group RS Rating: A+
SMR Rating: A
Acc/Dis Rating: C-
ROE: 33.2.2%
Debt: 66%
Outstanding Shares: 57.4m
EPS Due Date: 11/02/18

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts+

KEM 5 Year Monthly from Bigcharts 2018-08-31

KEM 1 Year Daily from Bigcharts 2018-08-31

KEM 3 Month Daily from Bigcharts 2018-08-31

KEM 3 Month Daily from Stockchatrts 2018-08-31

2018-09-05

I sold this one at a loss and I got filled at $23.93. This had a bad day yesterday on average volume and was close to my stop. I held the position, because it didn’t hit the -5% loss limit. I wasn’t overly concerned, because with the average volume people were no running for exit. I watched this one close and it was a down day at the start of the day. I had expected it to bounce and at lunch I checked… It didn’t recover and I closed the position

Opened position at: $25.50
Closed position at: $24.22
$-157 or -6.2%

This is the current chart from Stockcharts.com

KEM 3 Month Daily from Stockchatrts 2018-09-05

Stoneridge Inc – SRI

2018-08-21

I started watching this on 2018-06-14 and looking for the right time to open a position. I am buying an Out of The Money $35 call Sept 21, 2018. The current price is $32.62

I am expecting the MACD cross over. I bought 3 $35 calls with September 21, 2018 expiration. At the time that I bought the stock price was at S32.72

I got filled at
-100% stop: -.50
300% Target: 1.50

IBD Rankings today
Composite Rating: 96
EPS Rating: 92
RS Rating: 93
Group RS Rating: A+
SMR Rating: B
Acc/Dis Rating: B
ROE: 18.2%
Debt: 51%
Outstanding Shares: 929m
EPS Due Date: 10/30/18

Dr Alexander has a triple screen for viewing charts and Trading for a Living is why I use the following charts

SRI 5 Year Monthly from Bigcharts 2018-08-20

SRI 1 Year Daily from Bigcharts 2018-08-20

SRI 3 Month Daily from Bigcharts 2018-08-20

SRI 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-08-20

2018-09-23

Well this trade idea didn’t work out. I had expected the MACD and MACDH positive crossover. It didn’t happen and I lost the entire position

The PSAR is above and there was a big o’l red candle in August. The stock was already below the 50 EMA and was at the 100 EMA

There was no planned event happening so I had time decay working against me

This is the cost of tuition in learning the market. This was an impulse buy and was not a good setup

SRI 3 Month Daily from Stockcharts 2018-09-23